An epidemiological and economic simulation model to evaluate the spread and control of infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitus in The Netherlands.

Bovine herpesvirus type I (BHV1), causing infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), was introduced in the Netherlands in 1971. In 1993, about 42% of the dairy cows had antibodies against BHV1. In the future, stricter requirements are anticipated regarding the health status of exported breeding cows and material. To support policymakers in their decisions on IBR eradication, a simulation model was developed in which the epidemiological and economic consequences of various control strategies were evaluated. This paper describes the model and provides an overview of some important outcomes. In the model, dairy herds were classified into different disease states based on (1) the reproduction ratio of the disease (R, defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one infectious animal) (2) the within-herd prevalence, within each value of R and (3) the expected number of infectious animals in an infectious herd within each prevalence range. The dynamic transition probability of a herd going from one state to another per week depends on direct contacts between animals, and other contacts such as transmission through fomites, indirect transmission through other species, airborne transmission and minor disease-specific routes such as venereal or iatrogenic transmission. Five control strategies, including both a voluntary vaccination program and a compulsory vaccination program for all dairy herds were evaluated. A voluntary vaccination program with 50% participation is not expected to lead to eradication of IBR. It appears that compulsory vaccination would be necessary to reach an IBR-free status