Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models
- Epke A. Le Rutte
- Lloyd A.C. Chapman
- Luc E. Coffeng
- Sarah Jervis
- Epco C. Hasker
- Shweta Dwivedi
- Morchan Karthick
- Aritra Das
- Tanmay Mahapatra
- Indrajit Chaudhuri
- Marleen C. Boelaert
- Graham F. Medley
- Sridhar Srikantiah
- T. Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Sake J. de Vlas
DOIAbstract
We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts wi...
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