Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse

In this study observed precipitation, temperature, and discharge records from the Meuse basin for the period 1911-2003 are analysed. The primary aim is to establish which meteorological conditions generate (critical) low-flows of the Meuse. This is achieved by examining the relationships between observed seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies, and low-flow indices. Secondly, the possible impact of climate change on the (joint) occurrence of these low-flow generating meteorological conditions is addressed. This is based on the outcomes of recently reported RCM climate simulations for Europe given a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. The observed record (1911-2003) hints at the importance of multi-seasonal droughts in the generation of critical low-flows of the river Meuse. The RCM simulations point to a future with wetter winters and drier summers in Northwest Europe. No increase in the likelihood of multi-seasonal droughts is simulated. However, the RCM scenario runs produce multi-seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies that are out of the range of the observed record for the period 1911-2003. The impact of climate change on low-flows has also been simulated with a hydrological model. This simulation indicates that climate change will lead to a decrease in the average discharge of the Meuse during the low-flow season. However, the model has difficulties to simulate critical low-flow conditions of the Meuse