Forecasting changes of hydrological and hydrochemical conditions in the Aral Sea

The increase of irretrievable river water withdrawals and regulation of river flow has a negative effect on the natural regime of the Aral Sea. The Amu Darya River and the Syr Darya River Basins are the largest irrigated fanning areas. Their favorable soil and climatic conditions ensure guaranteed yields of various crops on irrigated lands. Since 1961, for the drastic increase of irretrievable river water withdrawal, mainly for irrigation, the inflow of river water into the Aral Sea has started to decrease significantly, accordingly the sea's hydrological and hydrochemical regimes disrupted dramatically. The sea level has continued to drop as evaporation exceeds inflow. This negatively transforms the natural environment and worsens socio-economic conditions in Priaralie as a whole, especially in the lower reaches of Amu Darya and Syr Darya, where natural conditions are largely determined by the sea's impact. At present, this causes desertification of the nonirrigated zone in the deltas, spreading to new areas as the Aral Sea dries out