Vulnerability analysis of power systems considering uncertainty in variables using fuzzy logic type 2

Objectives: This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing the vulnerability of power systems including uncertainty in some variables. Method: The methodology optimizes a Bi-level mixed integer model. Costs associated with power generation and load shedding are minimized at the lowest level whereas at the higher level the damage in the power system, represented by the load shedding, is maximized. Fuzzy logic type 2 is used to model the uncertainty in both linguistic variables and numeric variables. The linguistic variables model the factors of the geographical environment while numeric variables model parameters of the power system. Results: The methodology was validated by using a modified IEEE RTS-96 test system. The results show that by including particularities of the geographical environment different vulnerabilities are detected in the power system. Moreover, it was possible to identify that the most critical component is the line 112-123 because it had 16 attacks in 18 scenarios, and that the maximum load shedding of the system varies from 145 to 1258 MW. Conclusions: This methodology can be used to coordinate and refine protection plans of the power system infrastructure. Funding: EMC-UN research group