Tracking the evolution of HIV/AIDS in China from 1989-2009 to inform future prevention and control efforts.

BACKGROUND: To determine policy implications, this analysis tracks the evolution of HIV/AIDS infection across China to understand current trends and potential risk factors. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A retrospective study with spatial analytical model and multilevel spatial models was conducted among 326,157 HIV/AIDS cases reported from 1989-2009. The results indicate that the distribution of HIV/AIDS was clustered at the county level with different directional distributions across China from 2003 to 2009. Compared to 2003, by 2009 there was a 122% increase in HIV cases among rural residents, 294% increase among urban residents, 211% increase among migrants, and 237% increase among permanent residents. The overall proportion of HIV by different routes of transmission showed dramatic changes with a 504% increase in sexual transmission of HIV, 90% decrease in blood/plasma transmission, and 35% decrease in injecting drug user transmission. Sexual transmission was the major transmission route among women (44%) and the elderly (59% in men, 44% in women) as well as among permanent (36%) and urban residents (33%). Among those