Comparison of projected and actual outcomes of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malawi, 1990-2000.

BACKGROUND: In 1992 Liomba et al used HIV-AIDS prevalence data from 1980 to 1990 and projected the adult HIV prevalence and the impact of AIDS for the years 1991 to 2000, under high and low HIV incidence scenarios, using EpiModel, DemProj and the AIDS Impact Model. This report compares the actual outcomes of the HIV-AIDS epidemic in Malawi from 1991 to 2000 with projections made by Liomba et al. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Due to the lack of data on rural HIV prevalence in 1992, the prevalence estimates for the years 1980 to 1990 used by Liomba et al were higher than the now published prevalence. We re-estimated the projections for 1991 to 2000 based on more recent estimates of 1980 to 1990 HIV-AIDS prevalence using the Spectrum modeling software, and compared the old and new projections with the actual epidemic figures reported by NAC. The original projections made by Liomba et al and the adjusted projections made in this report are both very similar to the observed course of the AIDS epidemic reported by National AIDS Commission. Unfortunately for Malawi the epidemic seems to have followed the high scenario of HIV incidence. CONCLUSION: The course of the epidemic in Malawi and the social and economic devastation caused by it, despite the presence of reasonably good projections and prevention recommendations by Liomba et al, highlights the need for better co-ordination between research and practice. It also emphasizes the need to examine the difficulties faced by countries like Malawi to act more rapidly and implement effective prevention measures in the face of an epidemic