An analysis of the pollution risk in the Gulf of Mexico : a model study

We perform a systematic analysis of the risk for a given region of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico to experience a contamination by oil or pollutant in the case of a spill occurring offshore in deep (deeper than 1000 m) waters. The main objective of our study is to determine whether some coastal regions are more exposed to pollution than others, which is of major importance to implement Marine Protected Areas. A special focus of this study is given to the role of the oceanic eddies and the Loop Current, as they largely impact the circulation of the GoM and therefore the dispersion of contaminants. We use the NEMO model framework and implemented a total of 370 “passive tracers” covering the whole region of the GoM. Tracers are released either at surface or at depth (1000 m). For each of the release, we consider three behavior of the tracers, mimicking oil or contaminant properties : - the contaminant is passively transported in the ocean without decay, - the contaminant decays - the contaminant accumulates once it lands at the coast. Each experiment is integrated over 50 years under climatological forcings in order to assess the role of the internal and the eddy variabilit