Prediction CH4 Emissions from the Wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of Northeastern China in the 21st Century.

The Sanjiang Plain has been experienced significant wetland loss due to expanded agricultural activities, and will be potentially restored by the China National Wetland Conservation Action Plan (NWCP) in future. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of future climate warming and wetland restoration on wetland CH4 emissions in northeast China. We used an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) to drive a modified biogeophysical model (CH4MODwetland), and projected CH4 flux variations from the Sanjiang Plain wetlands under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios throughout the 21st century. Model validation showed that the regressions between the observed and simulated CH4 fluxes by the modified model produced an R2 of 0.49 with a slope of 0.87 (p