Chasing ghosts: the nature of the terrorist adversary

A key motivation for much research on protective structures is terrorism or insurgency attacks. Risk is the integration of threat, vulnerability and consequences, but threat is often based on worse-case thinking about the capability of terrorists to successfully plan and execute large scale bombings. The paper looks at the nature of the terrorist adversary by exploring their capabilities and motivation, technical skills, and target selection. Key among this is the myth of the mastermind, the risk of progressive collapse, and the track record of terrorists attacking targets in the West. This is contrasted to terrorist or insurgent attacks in the Middle East. An improved understanding of the threat allows decision-makers to more effectively deploy resources to counter such threats, which includes appropriate design and assessment of civilian and military protective structures