Quantity versus Quality in China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project: A System Dynamics Analysis

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) Project has entered the operational stage. The infrastructure decreases water shortages and promotes economic growth for North China, whereas the environmental effects have yet to be fully examined. In this paper, an analysis of the interaction between water quantity and water quality is conducted using the system dynamics method. In a specific province covering areas that provide and receive water, simulation results for economic and environmental indicators at different levels of transferred water and pollution rates are obtained. Certain conclusions can be drawn from the findings. First, the SNWD Project can provide a sufficient quantity of water for economic growth in receiving regions. Second, an efficient quantity of transferred water exists, which demonstrates the growth limitation for both agriculture and the groundwater funnel. Third, upgrades in water quality can mutually reinforce the quantity effect and greatly promote economic growth. An environmental limitation exists for all economic activities. Therefore, water quantity and water quality are equally crucial in the SNWD Project to provide an opportunity for sustainable development