Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation

Many traditionally agricultural dependent economies have transformed towards service industries, such as tourism. This transformation resulted in significant impacts upon economies, communities and the environment. However, existing indicators to measure the impacts of tourism on regions have not been examined across the transformation process, leaving a gap in the understanding of long-range planning for tourism. Therefore, this paper investigates the relationship between economic, social and environmental indicators across the three main phases of tourism transformation. The three broad phases of tourism transformation can be observed to commence (inception), grow (construction) and then enter a steady state (urbanisation). To investigate this, our research surveyed 303 residents across three local areas at different stages of economic development and tourism dependency, to develop tourism, economic, social and environmental indicators. Employing counter-factual data, generalised ordinal logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the impact of changes in tourism on the economy, society and the environment across the regions. The findings indicate that the relationships between tourism and the triple bottom line differ depending on the stage of development. This research provides insight into local-level long-range planning, which can enable more sustainable tourism transformation, and explores avenues for future research. 长远可持续性当地旅游转型的反事实情景规划 许多传统的农业为依靠的经济开始向服务业转型，例如旅游。该转型导致了对经济，社区和环境的重要影响。但是，区域旅游影响衡量的已有指标通过转型过程并没有得到衡量，因此对旅游的长远规划的理解留有不足。因此，该文章通过旅游转型的三大主要阶段调查了经济，社会和环境指标之间的关系。这旅游转型的三大阶段可以被看作出现（成立），成长（建设），和随之进入一个稳定的状态（城市化）。为调查这三大阶段，该研究通过三个当地区域，在经济发展和旅游依赖性的不同阶段调查了303个居民，来发展旅游，经济，社会和环境的指标。使用反事实数据，归纳性序数逻辑回归模型被用来预测和对比旅游的改变对不同区域的经济，社会和环境的影响。结论显示旅游和三大基础线之间的关系在发展的不同阶段是有区别的。该研究提供对当地长远规划的理解窗口，这能帮助更可持续性的旅游转型和探索将来研究的可能性