The ECEM climate service: how reanalysis can help energy planning

International audienceEuropean Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) is a Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) activity which isdeveloping, in close collaboration with the energy sector, a proof-of-concept model – or demonstrator. Its purposeis to enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess how well energy supply will meet demand in Europeover different time horizons, focusing on the role climate has on energy supply and demand.This presentation sums up how energy time series were modelled and computed at country level and dailytime step for the whole Europe.Bias-adjusted Essential Climate Variables from ERA-Interim over a European domain for 1979-2016 were used tocalculate electricity demand and generation from wind, solar and hydro power. Different strategies were adopteddepending on the target variable, and the availability of measured data to calibrate and validate the energy models.For demand, individual models were set up for each country, using a general approach based on GeneralizedAdditive Models. Hydro power generation could not be modelled precisely using a physical model at plant level,due to the lack of a plants database; hence a simplified statistical model approach was chosen, and gives goodresults. Wind and solar power generation were modelled with both statistical and physical models.Results of these different models and approaches will be presnted, and compared to actual measurements orestimations of electricity demand and supply. Comparison will also be made with other projects.We will then present how the produced time series are integrated into the ECEM demonstrator, and howsuch information can be exploited to analyze and understand the supply/demand balance problem at the Europeanscale. We will also discuss some critical needs for the further development of such services, including theavailability of energy data