Model assessment of the predicted environmental consequences for OSPAR problem areas following nutrient reductions

The Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is used for the assessment of eutrophication status in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat, and of the following long-term effects on the ecosystem for the 50% nutrient reduction target (PARCOM Recommendation 88/2). Model validation and the final reporting of the results in accordance with the OSPAR comprehensive procedure are presented.The model is validated by a comparison of a long time series (1985-2002) of the model results to data from a number of stations representing different parts of the model domain. A quantitative examination of the model performance is done by a comparison between the seasonal and annual averages of the model results and in-situ data. The model response to nutrient reductions shows that reducing nutrient inputs from land have the largest effects on the nitrate concentrations in the Kattegat and along the Swedish coast in the Skagerrak. The effects on phosphate concentrations are relatively small. The largest effect obtained from a 50% reduction of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus from the runoff in one country alone is obtained for Sweden. This model experiment reduces the nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations in the Swedish coastal waters by 5%-10% and 3%-6%, respectively. The annual net production is reduced by 2%-4% and changes in sedimentation are less than 1%. The largest reduction is found in the Kattegat.The combined effect from a 50% reduction of anthropogenic nutrient supplies from land and an anticipated realistic reduction of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea reduces the nitrate and phosphate concentrations in the Kattegat and the Swedish parts of the Skagerrak coastal area by 20%-30%. The average chlorophyll concentrations are reduced by 8%-11%. The annual net production and the sedimentation are reduced by 12%-20% and 5%-12%, respectively