Fertility transitions: do countries follow a common pathway?

Fertility decline has long been underway in most countries, at least in certain subgroups of the population. However, while some developing countries have reached a state of low fertility, others have stalled in their fertility decline. This paper proposes a pathway by which countries transition from high to low fertility, focusing on fertility by wealth and place of residence. Using DHS data from 28 countries that have three or more surveys over a ten year period, total fertility rates are calculated by wealth quintile and place of residence. Wealth quintiles are calculated for urban and rural areas separately to provide a measure that more accurately captures asset wealth in the two areas. It is seen that there are substantial commonalities between countries in transitions over time, with fertility for the urban rich falling first and fastest, while the rural poor are the last to experience any fertility change. The results support the proposed fertility transition pathway and highlight groups in the population that are responsible for stalled fertility declin