Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Zika vaccine candidate. A Hypothetical Implementation in Colombia

Background: Zika virus (ZKV) is the fourth major infectious disease announced as Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by WHO in the beginning of 2016. Until today, there is still no approved vaccine after seventy years since ZKV was discovered. Mobilization of international resources has led to a number of vaccine candidates currently under preclinical or clinical testing. Given the early stage of development, the potential cost-effectiveness of a vaccination campaign is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical Zika vaccine candidate for potential implementation in Colombia Materials and method: Compartmental deterministic model is used to describe the dynamic of ZVI, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is utilized in conjunction with the deterministic result to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical vaccination campaign. Sensitivity, scenario, and value of information (VOI) analysis are used to evaluate uncertainty of the model. Data are derived from literature review (Pubmed search), WHO, CDC and other sources. Data then are synthesized, converted to reflect as close as possible to the local perspective. Results: Within the model, vaccination campaign is highly cost-effective. From societal perspective, it not only leads to improvement of health outcome but also saves cost. The earlier a potential vaccination program introduced, the more cost-effectiveness it is; introducing vaccination campaign after about one year from the beginning of an outbreak does not lead to health outcome improvement within two and half years horizon. The effect of birth rate drop is significant and there is a need to do further study on this area. Improving yearly delivering capacity could potentially improve the cost-effectiveness exponentially