A Comparative Study of Projection Models on China's Food Economy

During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews several influential projection models and compares their model structure, major assumptions and projection results. In addition, it tries to pinpoint the most significant factors that could influence the projection results. Several emerging issues, such as the projection validity, livestock structure changes and data reliability are discussed at the end