Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing predictive models using both old and new archaeological data. Furthermore, an attempt is made to reconcile the worlds of expert judgment and quantitative analysis by means of multicriteria decision making techniques and Bayesian statistics. The thesis also offers some alternative approaches to predictive modelling, like using prehistoric land use reconstructions, and the integrating of social and cultural factors into the models. It also giv es an up to date review of the international and Dutch state of affairs in archaeological predictive modeling