Predicting the sensitivity of the Reaction Time-based Concealed Information Test

Current lie detection and memory detection tests are imperfect. One possibility is that they work in some individuals but not in others. Here, we investigate whether we can statistically predict the accuracy of the Concealed Information Test (CIT). We examined the CIT's potential by (1) its sensitivity on an unrelated set of autobiographic questions and by (2) using mock crime target-irrelevant differences. A mock crime CIT that included autobiographical questions was used to detect criminal intent. The mock crime CIT discriminated (receiver operating characteristic a = .87; d = 1.25; hit rate: 86%) between the criminal intent and the control condition. Using target-irrelevant differences, but not the autobiographical questions, successfully screened out individuals and increased the CIT's accuracy (receiver operating characteristic a = .95; d = 1.67; hit rate: 97%). Our study provides preliminary evidence that we can predict for whom the CIT is likely to work and that this information can be used to increase detection efficiency. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd