Probability of flooding: An uncertainty analysis

In the Netherlands a new safety approach concerning the flood defences will probably be implemented in the near future. Therefore, an uncertainty analysis is currently being carried out to determine the uncertainty in the probability of flooding . The uncertainty of the probability of flooding could indicate whether we are ready for the change to a new safety concept. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis may give insight to the prioritization of future research to reduce uncertainties. To find out whether the uncertainties are reducible by means of future research, different types of uncertainty have to be distinguished. The analysis is done with both FORM and the Monte-Carlo method. The input for the models will be determined with the aid of expert opinions. For the most important failure mechanism overflow and overtopping, the current results indicate that the most influential stochastic variables are the ones with inherent uncertainty, which uncertainty is not reducibl