Field scale geomechanical modeling for prediction of fault stability during underground gas storage operations in a depleted gas field in the Netherlands

A geomechanical modeling study was conducted to investigate stability of major faults during past gas production and future underground gas storage operations in a depleted gas field in the Netherlands. The field experienced induced seismicity during gas production, which was most likely caused by the reactivation of an internal Central fault separating the two major reservoir blocks. A 3D field scale geomechanical finite element model of the gas field was developed with realistic representation of the structural geology and juxtaposition of various lithologies across the Central fault. The model was calibrated to match the subsidence data and the approximate location of the critically stressed, reactivated part of the fault in agreement with the seismological localization of the hypocenters of the past major seismic events. The model predicted a maximum shear slip of up to 2 cm associated with gas production. Additional, but a smaller, fault slip of up to 0.5 cm could be expected during the subsequent phase of cushion gas injection. During annual cycles of gas injection and production, the Central fault is not critically stressed and the predicted stress changes lie in the elastic region. Although the fault slip is unlikely, continuous monitoring of induced seismicity is essential