Closing the Gaps : Taking into Account the Effects of Heat stress and Fatique Modeling in an Operational Analysis

Traditional, combat model based analysis of Dismounted Combatant Operations (DCO) has focused on the ‘lethal’ aspects in an engagement, and to a limited extent the environment in which the engagement takes place. These are however only two of the factors that should be taken into account when conducting an operational analysis. Analyses of DCO especially need to take the human factors, such as emotion, cognition, sociality and physiology into account in order to provide comprehensive analysis and soldiersystem focused input to military decision makers. Only recently has heat stress and fatigue modelling become possible when conducting research wargaming, due to the advances in science and improved modelling capabilities. The study presented in this paper looks at the possible changes to research wargaming outcomes when modelling heat stress within a combat situation. The study is based on a modelled attack into a defended building by soldiers bearing full personal protection equipment (PPE) and a typical combat load of weapon, ammunition, water and other required kit. The attack is modelled to be occurring in hot (above 45 degrees Celsius) dry conditions against a defender that does not possess any PPE and carries far less equipment. The “objective” of the study is to determine the relative combat effectiveness of different section sizes versus a standard opponent using specified measures of effectiveness. The attack is conducted under two different modelling environments using the same combat model. The first ignores the heat stress and fatigue caused by the PPE and equipment weight, the second causes the soldier’s performance to degrade as their core body temperature rises and they become fatigued. The combat effectiveness ranks of the section size options are developed under both environments and compared to determine what, if any, affect the human factors had on the relative combat effectiveness of the different section sizes. Further strengthening the links between operational analysts and human factors scientists, in order to provide military decision makers with solid operational analyses is vital to the success of future military operations. This collaborative Canadian/Dutch study on heat stress modelling illustrates the need and the challenges ahead