Does more sophisticated modeling reduce model uncertainty? A case study on vibration predictions

In this paper, the reliability of vibration predictions in civil engineering is quantified. Emphasis is laid on the vibration predictions for road- and rail traffic and vibrations from building activities such as (sheet)pile driving. Several kinds of prediction techniques were investigated: expert opinion, very simple empirical models, dedicated models, and FEM. The prediction techniques were applied by four different institutes which are leading in the Dutch practice in vibration prediction: TNO, GeoDelft, Delft University of Technology and Holland Railconsult. Predictions were generated for a variety of characteristic situations and were compared with measurements. Besides the total uncertainty, which can be derived out of the difference between prediction and measurement, a break-down of uncertainty sources was made