Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased, although recently sulphur emissions, 5 and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (Sulphur Emission Control Areas). The maximum allowed sulphur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1 %, as required by the European Union sulphur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulphur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4 %). This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new IMO rules (International Maritime Organisation). In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calcuulationws with the EMEP air pollution have been made on a 1/4° longitude x 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects 15 on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLL) have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of stricter controls on sulphur emissions from mid 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per 20 person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with present emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter emission control on sulphur show a general decrease in calculated particle concentration. At the same time, however, an increase in ship activity has resulted in higher emissions and subsequently air 25 concentrations, in particular of NOx, especially in and around several major ports. Additional model calculations have been made with land based and ship emissions representative of year 2030. Following a decrease in emissions, air quality is expected to improve, and depositions to be reduced. Particles from shipping are expected to decrease as a result of emission controls in the SECAs. Further controls of NOx emissions from shipping are not decided, and calculations are presented with and without such controls