Isolated late local recurrences with high mitotic count and early local recurrences following breast-conserving therapy are associated with increased risk on distant metastasis.

PURPOSE: Local recurrence (LR) after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) is associated with an increased risk for the development of distant metastasis. We studied risk factors for distant metastasis risk (DMR) and poor prognosis within a group of patients with LR as first event. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From a cohort of 1481 breast carcinomas treated with BCT in the period 1980-1994, a total of 68 pT1-3 N0-1 patients developed LR as first event. We have studied risk factors for the development of distant metastasis within this group of patients with LR. In addition to clinical factors (age at BCT and LR, mode of detection, location of LR, and treatment of LR), the histology slides of the primary and the recurrent tumor were reviewed. Immunohistochemical staining was performed for the following proteins: bcl-2, cyclin D1, E-cadherin, EGF receptor, ER, PR, Ki-67, c-erbB-2/neu, and p53. Statistical analyses were performed using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: At a median follow-up after LR of 5.6 years, the 5-year DMR was 53%. In univariate analysis, none of the factors of the primary tumor was found to be associated with DMR after LR. Of the recurrent tumor the following factors were found to be risk factors for high DMR after LR: interval between treatment of the primary tumor and LR at 2 years or less (relative risk, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-4.76; p = 0.008) and high mitotic count (relative risk, 2.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-6.15; p = 0.04). All patients with noninvasive recurrent tumor were alive at the time of analysis. Patients with an interval of greater than 2 years and a recurrent tumor with high mitotic count were found to have an equally poor prognosis compared to patients with LRs detected after a short interval. CONCLUSION: LR after BCT is associated with higher DMR and poor prognosis. Patients with LR within 2 years after BCT are especially at high risk. Late recurrences with high mitotic count have the same poor prognosis as early recurrences. For these patients, systemic treatment at time of the detection of LR should be considered