Simple radiographic parameter predicts fracturing in metastatic femoral bone lesions: results from a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In the randomised Dutch Bone Metastasis Study on the palliative effect of a single fraction (SF) of 8 Gy versus six fractions of 4 Gy on painful bone metastases, 14 fractures occurred in 102 patients with femoral metastases. Purpose of the present study was to identify lesional risk factors for fracturing and to evaluate the influence of the treatment schedule. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Pretreatment radiographs of femoral metastases were collected. Three observers separately measured the lesions and scored radiographic characteristics. RESULTS: Ten fractures occurred after median 7 weeks in 44 SF patients (23%) and four after median 20 weeks in 58 multiple fraction patients (7%) (UV, P=0.02). In 110 femoral metastases, an axial cortical involvement >30 mm significantly predicted fracturing (MV, P=0.02). Twelve out of 14 fractured lesions and 40 out of 96 non-fractured metastases had an axial cortical involvement >30 mm (negative predictive value, 97%). When correcting for the axial cortical involvement, the treatment schedule was not predictive anymore (MV, P=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Fracturing of the femur mostly depended on the amount of axial cortical involvement of the metastasis. We recommend to treat femoral metastases with an axial cortical involvement 30 mm, prophylactic surgery should be performed to minimize the risk of pathological fracturing or, if the patient's condition is limited, irradiation to a higher total dose