The development of a screening instrument to select patients at risk of residual complaints after lumbar disc surgery.

AIM: A considerable number of patients who undergo surgery for a lumbosacral radicular syndrome (LRS) continue to experience disability, pain, and loss of work capacity. The goal of the study is to develop a brief screening instrument to identify these patients at risk of residual complaints. METHODS: In a prospective study of 277 patients, the predictors for the outcomes disability, pain, and loss of work capacity were investigated. The best predictive model was constructed using a stepwise selection procedure (forward selection), which calculates the discriminative power of the model. Based on the relationship between regression coefficients, a clinical prediction rule was derived that predicted the probability of residual complaints after surgery for LRS. RESULTS: At 6 month follow-up 141 patients (51%) had residual complaints. The discriminative power of the instrument was .78 (AUC). The "Nijmegen Outcome of Lumbar Disc surgery Screening-instrument" (NOLDS) was based on the variables "lower education level", "younger age", "pain 3 days postoperatively", "passive pain coping", and "fear of movement/(re)injury". CONCLUSION: The results of the study are promising, showing that a brief clinical screening instrument can be used to identify patients at risk of residual complaints at 6 months after surgery for LRS. The early identification of patients at risk having residual complaints may make it possible to start tailored treatment early in the rehabilitation process