Determinanten van arbeidsongevallen in Nederland: verschillen tussen een retrospectieve en prospectieve onderzoeksopzet.

Research into the causes of occupational accidents is largely cross-sectional in nature, and has the limitation of possible reversed causality, as the consequences of occupational accidents can be interpreted as causes of the accidents. The current article examines the actual predictors of occupational accidents in the Netherlands using a prospective research design, and compares these predictors with the determinants of occupational accidents from a cross-sectional research design. To this end, longitudinal data from 9,889 employees who participated the Netherlands Working Conditions Cohort Study were analyzed. The results show that the differences in the determinants of occupational accidents in the past (retrospective) and the future (prospective) are limited. The factors that predict accidents are often similar to the factors associated with accidents that workers in the past have had. There are some factors that are an exception and are retrospectively, but not prospectively associated with the occurrence of an accident. Possibly, these are examples of reversed causality. The results moreover show which factors are actual prospective predictors of occupational accidents, and are therefore targets for policymakers and businesses for the prevention of occupational accidents. (aut.ref.