Analisis Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

This study aims to determine the relationship between variables export, import, and exchange rate against Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia. The data used in the empirical study of a sequence of data monthly time of year 2011.01 through 2014.12 from Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analysis tool used is Auto Regression Vector Model (VAR). The results of this study indicate that the one-way relationship between the variables of foreign reserves and export. Then one-way relationship between exchange rate and exports. Lastly, there is a two-way relationship between imports and foreign exchange reserves, two-way relationship between exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves, two-way relationship between imports and exports, two-way relationship between the exchange rate and imports. The results also showed foreign exchange reserves are significantly influenced by the movement itself at a probability of 1 %. Export variable negative and not significantly affect the foreign exchange reserves. While imports of positive and not significant to the foreign exchange reserves. Foreign Exchange Reserves Indonesia is positively influenced by the exchange rate and not significant