Nieuwe plaatsen van het kapitaal: Het vastgoed/financieel complex in Rusland en Polen

English Summary The state-finance-real estate ‘triangle’ found its most spectacular expression in 2007/8 when the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market caused an economic crisis of global scale. Yet, even though financial news is full of implicit references to the interaction between the three dimensions, it rarely explicitly addresses it as issue in its own right. For this reason, Aalbers (2013b:1) has proposed the metaphor of the ‘Real Estate/Financial Complex’ to centre attention on the linkages between these three realms. The present thesis is part of the Real Estate/Financial Complex research programme and studies the Russian and Polish cases. My central objective is to discern dynamics of real estate financialisation and to explain differences in this phenomenon as it unfolds in the two countries. The thesis finds that property markets in both Russia and Poland have become increasingly entangled with the dynamics of financialisation. Yet, the extent of this process and its form differs in the two countries. Russia has experienced very little and discontinuous financialisation of its real estate markets in the past three decades. Here, real estate-financial relations are defined by strong involvement of domestic capital and state actors and dynamics of global commodity markets. Poland’s real estate market in contrast has undergone more comprehensive and continuous financialisation since the inception of market relations. Specifically, real estate is inserted into dynamics of financialisation from a position of subordination, serving as investment outlet for globally mobile capital. In both countries state socialist legacies enable the commercialisation and (partial) financialisation of real estate markets. To explain these differences the thesis foregrounds two dimensions: Russia and Poland’s respective political regimes and distinct modes of integration in the hierarchical global economy. In so doing the thesis does not only extend the literature on the financialisation of real estate to post-socialist geographies, but also contributes to a more nuanced understanding of the process in general. It shows how international and domestic power relations are (re)produced and negotiated through real estate financialisation and, in the process, shape the distinct nature of the latter. Moreover, this thesis draws on and contributes to a wider set of literatures. First, it builds on the core-periphery framework developed by World-systems Analysis and in particular studies that foreground the role of finance and financialisation in reproducing and deepening the hierarchies and divisions of the contemporary global economy. Second, it engages with Jessops’ strategic relational approach to the state and notions of state-space restructuring and assemblage to account for the complex constitution of the state and to analyse real estate-financial relations as one outlet and medium of its power. To better appreciate transformation and the history of state socialism in shaping dynamics of financialisation, I lastly engage with critical literature on post-socialism. I suggest that rather than constraining financialisation, socialist legacies can facilitate its advance and magnify its effects. VIII The study is based on a mix of mainly qualitative methods that are embedded in a historical approach to political economy. These methods include open-ended semistructured interviews and the collection and analysis of a wide range of primary and secondary data sources. During five research stays between 2013 and 2016, I conducted 77 interviews with professionals in the real estate industry, the financial sector, civil servants, urban planners, architects, journalists, and political and urban activists. In part I of this thesis, I set out the context of Russia and Poland’s political economic development to help the reader situate the general findings of the dissertation. In particular, I highlight how different elite constellations, external and internal pressures and endowments have put the two countries on different transformation paths, resulting in distinct political regimes and modes of global economic integration. In part II, I focus on national-level dynamics and examine the interaction of actors and tools of modern finance with the two countries’ respective commercial property markets and housing finance systems. Studying Russia and Poland’s commercial real estate markets, I highlight a common trajectory towards the increasing economic importance of the property sector and its growing entanglement with modern finance, but also identify key differences in this process. In particular, I find that Russia’s commercial real estate market experienced temporary and partial financialisation, which was linked to domestic processes of capital switching. Commercial real estate in Poland, in contrast, experienced more thorough and continuous financialisation as spatial fix for globally mobile capital. I then explore the realm of housing by examining how mortgage markets in Russia and Poland have become exposed to and integrated into global processes of financialisation. I show that even though explicitly embracing securitisation—a key tool of finanicalisation—the Russian mortgage market remains dominated by state actors and is isolated from dynamics of financial markets. The Russian mortgage market is therefore a case of financialisation in form—in terms of the institution of securitisation—only. While the polish housing finance system was not designed to attract global investors and produce financial assets, it has experienced more comprehensive financialisation. The Polish mortgage market is therefore financialised in form—through FX loans—and effect—in terms of risk transmission and the transformation of households into investor subjects. I also examine how Russia and Poland’s states rely on dynamics of real estate internationalisation to reproduce and negotiate their outward-oriented power, in Russia via geopolitics and in Poland through economic integration. This foregrounds the state as assemblage of strategic relations, and as more than a regulatory force. In part III, I shed light on the urban dimension of Russia and Poland’s real estate-financial relations. Towards this, I first trace the evolution of Warsaw and Moscow’s urban political economies since the late 1980s, and then offer case studies of business districts in the two cities. Part IV concludes with a summary of the thesis’ findings and considerations of future avenues for research.status: publishe