A new version of the ETAS model for seismic events with correlated magnitudes

The distribution of the magnitudes of seismic events is generally assumed to be independent on past seismicity. However, by considering events in causal relation, for example, mother-daughter, it seems natural to assume that the magnitude of a daughter event is conditionally dependent on one of the corresponding mother events. In order to find experimental evidence supporting this hypothesis, we analyze different catalogs, both real and simulated, in two different ways. From each catalog, we obtain the law of the magnitude of the triggered events by kernel density. The results obtained show that the distribution density of the magnitude of the triggered events varies with the magnitude of their corresponding mother events. As the intuition suggests, an increase of the magnitude of the mother events induces an increase of the probability of having “high” values of the magnitude of the triggered events. In addition, we see a statistically significant increasing linear dependence of the magnitude means.We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016)]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event’s generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard