Autonomous Vehicles in Delaware: Analyzing the Impact and Readiness for the First State

The sci-fi reality of self-driving, networked, autonomous vehicles is nearly here. Ford claims it will sell these vehicles within five years, and most analysts expect modest sale numbers by the late 2020s and widespread adoption throughout the 2030s and 2040s. The consequences of the impending autonomous vehicle revolution for Delaware’s economy, its residents, and visitors are significant. Public and private stakeholders will need to adapt current practices and processes to accommodate the new advancement in transportation. State regulations that govern vehicles and drivers will need to evolve with the technology. Cybersecurity and privacy limits will be tested. The insurance industry will be required to develop new products and actuarial models. Claims of liability will be argued and settled in the courts. There will also be impacts, both positive and negative, to important transportation and urban planning areas, especially roadway safety, ownership, parking demand, vehicle miles traveled, roadway congestion and capacity, development patterns, infrastructure design, jobs and the economy, state and local budgets, fuel efficiency and carbon emissions, and transportation equity. The authors of this report attempted to preview the possible impact that autonomous vehicle deployment would have on each area. Major information gaps exist on autonomous vehicles, and there are complex interactions among areas that render such previews extremely challenging and uncertain. Despite these difficulties, the table summarizes the report’s findings. The findings are based on a long- term view and assume full, widespread penetration of autonomous vehicles across all Delaware roadways with a corresponding decline in manually-driven vehicles. A confidence measure was added to articulate the level of certainty/uncertainty for each area. Entries in the table should not be accepted as absolute truths, but rather as starting points for preliminary discussions on policy and administrative options to minimize negative impacts and amplify positive ones. In terms of readiness to accept autonomous vehicles, the state is well prepared technologically. The Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) possesses an extensive telecommunications network that can be leveraged for autonomous vehicle integration, and DelDOT is proactively upgrading its systems in anticipation of autonomous vehicle deployment. DelDOT plans to install a transportation-specific wireless network in Dover, test signal timing and traffic light priority in Smyrna, and develop software to partially automate decision-making at the state’s Transportation Management Center. These are positive steps that will make Delaware attractive for vehicle testing, operation, and deployment. From an administrative standpoint, the state could accelerate the evolution of its governance systems and institutions to align with the technological advance. If action is taken now, Delaware could position itself to be a leader in the autonomous vehicle area.The Delaware Department of Transportatio