Perspectives for low-carbon electricity production until 2030: lessons learned from the comparison of local contexts in Poland and Portugal

This paper compares perspectives for low-carbon electricity production in two EU member states - Poland and Portugal until 2030. Electricity production capacities, carbon emissions of electricity production, and production cost of electricity (COE) of Poland and Portugal are analyzed. The dilemmas of investments into low-carbon electricity production technologies relying on: (i) renewable energy sources (RES), (ii) nuclear fuel, and (iii) fossil fuels integrated with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) are discussed. Roadmap 2050 recommends about 40% decarbonization of electricity generation by 2030 and 100% by 2050. Based on electricity productionmix forecast for 2030, carbon emissions of electricity are estimated at 163 GgC TWh(e)(-1) in Poland and at 93.2 GgC TWh(e)(-1) in Portugal. Therefore, both compared countries must implement energy policies aimed at carbon emissions reduction through expanded utilization of RES (Poland - bioenergy, wind; Portugal - hydro, wind, solar), advanced CCS options (using local synergy opportunities), and optionally nuclear power (Poland).POKL.08.01.04-02-003/08