Mediterranean Habitat loss under future climate conditions – Adaptation options for Natura 2000 protected area sites.

Euro-Mediterranean ecosystems are widely recognized as a global hotspot of biodiversity, hosting nearly 25,000 plant species (of which 13,000 are endemic), and representing one of the main reservoirs of plant diversity in the world. For these reasons, Euro-Mediterranean ecosystems are considered a primary target for biodiversity conservation also in light of the services they provide to humans. Nevertheless, anthropogenic climate change is a serious threat for biodiversity conservation in this region. Indeed, the combined effect of the contraction of the Mediterranean climate domain and the expansion of the arid climate domain will lead to substantial habitat loss, which in turn may aggravate the impacts on communities of plant and animal species. In this study we assess Mediterranean habitat loss under scenarios of climate change and propose a series of adaptation options for Natura 2000 protected area sites. We first computed changes in the Mediterranean and arid climate domains (according to the Köppen‐Geiger classification) between the historical reference climate centred on the 1990s and two future periods centred on the 2030s and 2080s, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We used 11 high resolution (0.11°) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The simulations were previously corrected for bias by Dosio (2016). Results of this study identified Natura 2000 sites that will be affected by Mediterranean habitat loss. Our results indicate that by the end of the century the Euro-Mediterranean domain is projected to lose an area equivalent to the size of Greece and Portugal combined. The loss is entirely due to shifts of the arid domain, which is projected to double in size. The shrinking of the current Euro-Mediterranean domain is projected to affect an important proportion of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 sites. Options for adaptation are modelled looking at facilitating the mobility of vagile species and reconnecting stable Mediterranean habitats and Natura 2000 sites through maintenance or development of corridors and stepping stones, creation of new protected areas, and actions promoting appropriate management of the wider landscape. The proposed options take into consideration investments in Green Infrastructure and the creation of a denser network of interconnected protected areas in critical zonesJRC.D.1-Bio-econom