Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period