Interaksi Kebijakan Moneter Dan Fiskal: Pendekatan Sistem Ekonomi Simultan (1980.1-2006.4)

This research analyzes and simulates the interaction between the sectors of monetary and fiscal in a simultaneous economic system. It is conducted due to the fact that the implementation of a policy cannot be sterilized from that of other economic sectors which are moving simultaneously. Monetary sector in Indonesia is a sector that experiences a number of fundamental changes especially in the targeting between ultimate goal and role of monetary authorities themselves in economy. The policies chosen are including the changing role of Bank of Indonesia and the shifting of the empirical data regarding the interest rate, high-powered money, exchange rate, and inflation affecting the economic force especially in fiscal sector. This research aims at analyzing the interaction between monetary and fiscal sectors in simultaneous economic system. This research uses quarterly secondary data (1980.1-2006.4) with dynamic simultaneous equation model and two stages least square method of estimation. The result of simultaneous equation analysis, especially in monetary and fiscal sector shows the followings: in a long-run, trend variable which influences real money supply has a constituent direction with the theory. The equation in interest rate reflecting the monetary policy rule is the modification of Taylor rule model and shocks element is derived from fiscal sector. Data processing result shows that the government expenditure shocks give an influence towards the formation of short run interest rate. Inflation and interest rate of the previous period is also used as the determining indicator of interest rate. In the long run, the variables affect the fiscal sector towards the direction which is in accordance with the theory. Primary shock also influences the real government revenue. Government expenditure shock towards the establishment of interest rate and high powered money shock towards the government revenue indicates the importance of the interaction and coordination between monetary and fiscal sector