The Effectiveness of Consumption Taxes and Transfers as Insurance against Idiosyncratic Risk

We quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of a consumption tax and transfer pro- gram as insurance against idiosyncratic earnings risk. Our framework is a heterogeneous- agent, incomplete-market model with idiosyncratic wage risk and indivisible labor. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find a weak insurance effect of the transfer program. Extending the transfer system from the current scale raises consumption un- certainty, which increases aggregate savings and reduces the interest rate. Furthermore, consumption inequality shows a small decrease2012～2016年度科学研究費補助金[基盤研究(S)]「長期デフレの解明」(研究代表者 東京大学経済学研究科・渡辺努, 課題番号：24223003