Sustainable Water Management Under Climate Uncertainty

Abstract: Societal need for improved water management and concerns for the long-term sustainability of water resources systems are prominent around the world. The continued susceptibility of society to the harmful effects of hydrologic variability, pervasive concerns related to climate change and the emergent awareness of devastating effects of current practice on aquatic ecosystems all illustrate our limited understanding of how water ought to be managed in a dynamic world. To address these challenges, new problem solving approaches are required that acknowledge uncertainties, incorporate best available information, and link engineering design principles, typically based on determinism, with our best geoscience-based understanding of planetary change. In this presentation, we present and demonstrate a framework for developing water planning and management strategies that are resilient in the face of future uncertainties and our limited ability to anticipate the future. The approach begins with stakeholder engagement and decision framing to elicit relevant context, uncertainties, choices and connections that drive planning and serve as an entry point to exploring possible futures. The result is the development of water strategies that are informed by the best available predictive information and designed to perform well over a future of change. Examples from around the world are presented to illustrate the methodology