How to model (and steer) the future uptake of residential PV battery systems?

The cost of photovoltaics (PV) has drastically declined over the last decade, a development that is transforming energy markets worldwide. However, it is uncertain how an accelerated PV and battery uptake affects the overall electricity system – market prices and aggregated demand for electricity in particular. Some scenarios discuss the possibility of accelerated load defection. So far, there is only very limited quantitative research on the potential dynamics of the uptake of PV battery systems, the effect on the overall energy system and what can be done about it. We present first results from an examination of the deployment dynamics of PV battery systems in Germany