Strengthening coastal adaptation planning through scenario analysis: A beneficial but incomplete solution

Adaptation to climate change is an increasing priority for coastal management. European Union and Member State adaptation policies and strategies have been promulgated but associated with minimal delivery of adaptation interventions and tangible gains in resilience. Generic stages of adaptation and barriers to adaptation have been identified; various tools or instruments have potential to strengthen adaptation delivery. Scenario analysis is one tool which provides a description of alternate possible future states and has been used to support adaptation planning. This work aims to assess how readily those engaged in coastal management decision-making are able to develop and utilise scenarios of change for adaptation and whether it represents a ‘best practice’ approach for adaptation planning. The scenario analysis facilitated many aspects of the adaptation process, which ultimately led to a tractable adaptation strategy being produced. However, pathways for integrated approaches to co-deliver adaptation were less evident. The planning horizon, much beyond usual governmental budget and project cycles, the need for trade-offs and embedded institutional constraints meant that a majority of those who had started out on the scenario analysis became disengaged by its conclusion. The analysis undertaken concurs with theoretical work which projects a tail-off of the benefits of scenario analysis at the later stages of the adaptation cycle. The work concludes that scenario analysis offers the potential to overcome key barriers to adaptation progress. However, the gains may be limited as the institutional drivers for longer-term pro-active planning may be weak compared to present day roles, responsibilities and competitive pressures