Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions : a Markov chains approach

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of the disparities between 138 European regions over the 1980-1995 period. We characterize the regional per capita GDP cross-sectional distribution by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions and we model the growth process as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are then introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning (Quah, 1996b) and spatial Markov chains (Rey, 2001). The results of the analysis indicate the persistence of regional disparities, a progressive bias toward a poverty trap and the importance of geography to explain the convergence process