Possibilities of Specialization in Raw Milk Production for Drinking Milk in Hokkaido and the Future of Raw Milk Market : A Study of Existing Estimations of the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Japanese Dairy Industry

This paper aims to test the validity of prerequisites for existing estimations of the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Japanese dairy industry. To be concrete, it analyzes demand shifts from domestic goods to imports and specialization in raw milk production for drinking milk in Hokkaido, as a result of the elimination of tariffs. Big price differentials between the domestic and overseas market and the large demand for milk products for raw materials of processed foods in the Japanese market indicate competitive advantages for cheaper imported dairy products. However, taking into consideration qualities and standards, all domestic goods cannot immediately be replaced with imports. It is thus unlikely that imported goods will completely preclude domestic products from the dairy market. as opposed to the hypothesis presented in existing research. Specialization in raw milk production for drinking milk in Hokkaido is considered to lead to increasing transfer of not only packed whole milk but also raw milk to other prefectures. The following data have been obtained in this study from the monthly supply-demand estimation, Increasing transfer of raw milk from Hokkaido decreases raw milk production in the other prefectures by 44.9% to 2,026 thousand tons as of FY2012. Regardless of the elimination of tariffs, 566 thousand tons of raw milk production for butter and skim milk powder in Hokkaido will continue as a result of maintaining the supply-demand balance of raw milk. This data thus suggests that previous research overestimated the impact on domestic milk production. In addition, it is not obvious that specialization in raw milk production for drinking milk increases the farm gate price in Hokkaido.2013年度秋季大会シンポジウム共通論題「TPP ・成長戦略と北海道農業