On the link between exchange-rate regimes, capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in small European countries, 1979-2000

We investigate international monetary-policy transmission under different exchange-rate and capital-account regimes in eleven small, open economies during the 1980s and 1990s. We find no systematic link between ex-post monetary-policy autonomy and exchange-rate regimes. Capital controls appear to have provided a degree of temporal insulation from foreign monetary policy shocks, though not strict autonomy. The results are consistent both with short-term autonomy for small countries even under fixed exchange rates and an open capital account, and with long-term dependence under flexible exchange rates and an independent stability target. Results also indicate that euro-area market interest rates are significantly more responsive to the development of the corresponding US rate than were the previous national rates