Surviving Globalisation

This paper investigates the effects of international trade on firms' strategies for industry exit, either via closedown, switching industry or being acquired. We use a rich dataset of Swedish firms that extends over two decades to track firm choices between alternative strategies. We find that higher levels of international competition increase the probability of exit by merger and closedown. If trade is more intra-industry in character, the effect of import penetration on the probability of exit is less. The probability of exit by switching industry is higher in revealed comparative disadvantage industries. Finally, we find that the geographical source of international competition is important, the effects of trade on exit being strongest when trading partners are other OECD countries