The future of Australian rural communities: how powerful are the forces of change?

This paper tests how far population change in 412 rural communities of south-eastern Australia is predetermined by five “drivers”: remoteness, amenity, town size, rural population density, and concentration/dispersal of the population. Testing their combined impact through multiple correlation analysis, it finds that over the ten-year period 1996-2006, the status of the five drivers measured in 1996 explains (statistically) some 53% of the variance in the actual population change in the communities. When the density, town size and relative dispersal drivers are measured as established trends over the 15 years preceding 1996, this statistical explanation rises to 57%. Thus these background drivers heavily load the dice, but scope remains for other factors (including planning) to influence population outcomes in particular communities.Peter J. Smailes, Trevor L.C. Griffin and Neil M. Argen