Robust optimization of urban drought security for an uncertain climate

The majority of the world's population, including most Australians, live in large urban centres that cannot function without adequate water supply. Failure of bulk water systems to supply minimum water requirements for an extended period would most likely result in disastrous social and economic losses. Recent experience in Australia with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to 'running out of water' and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure that ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of rapid population growth in major cities the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing, particularly in the face of considerable uncertainty about future climate change (e.g. Dessai et al. 2009)