Species’ ecological traits correlate with predicted climatically-induced shifts of European breeding ranges in birds

Climatically induced shifts of species’ geographic ranges can provide important information about the potential future assembly of ecological communities. Surprisingly, interspecific variability in the magnitude and direction of these range shifts in birds has been the subject of few scientific studies, and a more detailed examination of species’ ecological traits related to this variability is needed. Using maps in the Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds (Huntley et al. 2007) we calculated the potential shifts of European breeding ranges in 298 bird species, and explored their relationships with breeding habitat, dietary niche, migration strategy, life history and geographic position of the current breeding range. Breeding habitat type showed the strongest relationship with the potential range shifts, with forest and wetland species showing the largest magnitude of shift. At the same time, ecological specialists showed a larger magnitude of shifts than generalists. In addition, we found that species with current ranges situated near continental borders and species with lower migratory capacity are more limited in their potential to shift due to climate change. Our analyses thus indicate which ecological groups of birds will be most likely forced to move their ranges under predicted climate change. This knowledge can help to adopt proper conservation actions. These actions will be particularly important in the case of specialist species, which have been shown to be the most sensitive to climate change impacts