The Economic Impacts of Emerging Diseases in Shrimp Aquaculture: Insights from a Multi-Year, Global Survey of the Industry

Suggested Bibliographic Reference: NAAFE Forum 2017 Proceedings, March 22-24, 2017. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver with assistance from Stefani Evers. North American Association of Fisheries Economists (NAAFE), Corvallis, 2017.Acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND), initially referred to as early mortality syndrome (EMS), is an emergent bacterial disease that has resulted in substantial economic losses for the global shrimp farming industry. Its occurrence was first reported in China in 2009, rapidly spreading to Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and eventually Mexico in early 2013. AHPND outbreaks typically occur within the first 30 days after stocking a newly prepared shrimp pond, with mortality exceeding 70% in some cases. The emergence of AHPND substantially altered patterns in the international trade of shrimp as declining exports from affected countries such as Thailand and China were partially compensated by increased production in Indonesia, India and Ecuador. This study combines actual production and exports data with production forecasts from an annual, global survey of the industry conducted by the Global Aquaculture Alliance in order to arrive at informed estimates of the global economic impact of AHPND. Information from the GAA survey on production expectations in major farming nations prior to the onset of the disease was used to develop estimates of foregone production and economic losses borne by these countries following the AHPND outbreaks. This study provides a benchmark for the assessment of investments in shrimp health prevention and management programs currently undertaken by farming nations in their efforts to reduce the frequency and magnitude of disease outbreaks that have historically plagued the industry