Evolving Bycatch Risk in the Pacific Groundfish Trawl IFQ

Catches of several potential choke species in the Pacific groundfish IFQ are highly uncertain and tend to be concentrated while quota is broadly distributed. An analysis prior to implementation of the IFQ suggested substantial risk of individual vessels accidentally exceeding quota allocations for several rockfish species and Pacific halibut. Many fishermen lacked confidence that they would be able to acquire quota on the market to cover incidental catch and consequently joined risk pools to mitigate this risk. I update the analysis of bycatch risk using tow level catch data since implementation of the IFQ. The analysis indicates that expected catch rates of most choke species have declined suggesting more effective bycatch avoidance behavior. However, there remains a significant risk that vessels’ catch of some choke species can be several times median quota allocations, in part because many vessels have increased catch and effort by leasing quota pounds, but quota share ownership has remained distributed. The results underscore the importance of an efficient quota market to redistribute quota to match realized catches, but a recent analysis suggests that the quota market is not distributing quota effectively and is subject to high transactions costs. This provides and explanation for the persistence of risk pools despite the fact that aggregate catches of overfished rockfish species and Pacific halibut have remained well below total quotas.