Income, welfare, housing and the transition to higher order births in the UK

The UK shows relatively high levels of progression to higher order birth compared to the rest of Europe. It is often assumed that the means-tested benefits system has an indirect pronatalist effect for low-income families, but robust empirical evidence is lacking. We use household panel data from a large nationally representative study to examine the relationship between household income, receipt of welfare benefits, housing, and the probability of experiencing a second, third or fourth birth. Associations with income vary by parity and women’s age. High levels of child tax credit receipt are associated with an increased risk of third birth. Social housing shows a strong, positive association with third and fourth birth. Whilst demographic factors – particularly women’s age – remain the strongest predictor of parity progression, we provide new evidence to suggest that welfare receipt and housing circumstances contribute to explaining social polarisation in family size in the UK